Cairo, Egypt - Fragility and conflict are always the result of complex interactions between different social, political, economic, cultural, and environmental drivers. In most cases, climate change is just one variable among a range of others that aggravate pre-existing environmental, social, economic and political pressures and stressors. By exacerbating existing problems, climate change can spur knock-on effects, including violent conflict, political instability, displacement, poverty, and hunger.

Analyzing climate-fragility risks requires an understanding of the conflict context as a starting point, which incorporates data and information about climate change impacts and other contextual factors. Then, this should be followed by an understanding of the interactions across these different elements and by looking into how these interactions have happened in the past, how are they happening now, and how they could play out in the future.

Against this background, and acting in its capacity as the Secretariat of the Aswan Forum for Sustainable Peace and Development, the Cairo International Center for Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping and Peacebuilding (CCCPA)--in partnership with adelphi, and as part of the Berlin Climate and Security Conference 2020 (Part II) -- conducted a training session, titled:

Climate Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies for National Planning and Programming in Africa

The training session was conducted to address the Aswan Forum recommendation on risk-informed national planning and programming and aimed to (i) assess the relationship and interlinkages between climate change, security and development risks, through the utilization of risk assessment frameworks and methodologies, and to (ii) understand how to mainstream this complex and integrated analysis of climate threats into national development, peacebuilding and conflict prevention planning and programming. The training session brought together government representatives from Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda; regional organizations, namely the ECOWAS, ECCAS, IGAD and Lake Chad Basin Commission, representatives from across departments at the AU, UN agencies, as well as bilateral partners, humanitarian and local organizations, and research and training centers.

The training introduced a 2-step approach to assist participants in (i) assessing the links and interactions between climate change, fragility, and conflict, and identifying climate-fragility risks; and (ii) translating assessments into appropriate responses that link peacebuilding, climate change adaptation, and development measures. This approach can be applied to a range of policies, programs, and projects at different scales. It is intended to inform strategy and policy development and the design and development of programs.

In achieving this, the session introduced 3 climate risk assessment tools and methodologies, namely (i) the pressure and shocks map that helps to visualize and thereby understand and identify the different pressures and shocks that are driving climate-fragility risks; (ii) Actor Mapping that describes how actors influence each other, and how conflict drivers and dynamics affect group interests and objectives, aiming to identify the most relevant actors, particularly the most affected groups, and understand the dynamics between them; and (iii) Understand the dynamics: conflict tree that explains how shocks, pressures, and structural factors interact with actors to create different kinds of conflicts and fragility.

After applying these tools to a regional context, participants engaged in a discussion on how to (i) identify entry points for policies and strategies and (ii) develop resilience-building interventions and climate-fragility programming.

This event was made possible in part by the generous support of the German Federal Foreign Office, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Government of Japan, the Government of Sweden, the United Nations Development Programme and the African Development Bank Group.